openmw.org

From the bug tracker:

8/19/2011 - 3/29/2012
7 months, 10 days
223 days
Closed features: 39
Open features: 112

On average, about 5.7 days per feature. (223/39)

Assuming that everything continues at this rate, it should take roughly 640 days ((223/39)*112) for every currently open feature to be completed.
640 days is equal to 1 year, 9 months. That schedules the fully functional product to be released on December 30, 2013, two days before new year.

The two main problems with this conclusion are:
1) The rate isn't guaranteed to stay the same. Things could occur to make the project take longer or shorter.
2) More features may be added, meaning the release date could be further out than what I came up with.

Still, it's a good goal to work towards. How does a 2014 New Year's OpenMW release sound to you guys?

We'll get there when we get there, but OpenMW will be a blast to play by December 31st 2014.

ElderTroll wrote:We'll get there when we get there, but OpenMW will be a blast to play by December 31st 2014.

I believe you mean 2013

Can't wait to make the 1.0 video!

Can't wait to watch that video. Wait, what is wrong with me?! I mean I can't wait to play 1.0.

This estimations are pointless. Mostly because while in 2011 (and before...) we were strongly underpowered: only a few developers, website was down a lot, spam bot invasions, every version was delayed greatly.

OTOH it seems that now we reached critical mass but god one knows when we will make 1.0.0.

Tomorrow before tea perhaps?

sirherrbatka wrote:This estimations are pointless. Mostly because while in 2011 (and before...) we were strongly underpowered: only a few developers, website was down a lot, spam bot invasions, every version was delayed greatly.

OTOH it seems that now we reached critical mass but god one knows when we will make 1.0.0.

Are you familiar with the Planning fallacy?
People generally underestimate the amount of time it will take them to accomplish a task. The best way to get an accurate estimate is to look at how long it took to accomplish a similar task in the past.

The best way to get an accurate estimate is to look at how long it took to accomplish a similar task in the past.

That only works if you have about the same amount of manpower that you had when accomplishing said similar task. it also only works when this similar task actually is similar.

Considering that the complexity of the issues in our tracker varies widely, you can't use a simple issue count as a measure. Considering that most of the harder issues already have been addressed (loading/saving, multiple ESX file support, levelled lists and NPC AI being the only hard tasks left), this measure would be even more biased.

Zini wrote:That only works if you have about the same amount of manpower that you had when accomplishing said similar task. it also only works when this similar task actually is similar.

Considering that the complexity of the issues in our tracker varies widely, you can't use a simple issue count as a measure. Considering that most of the harder issues already have been addressed (loading/saving, multiple ESX file support, levelled lists and NPC AI being the only hard tasks left), this measure would be even more biased.

*shrug*
If I'm wrong and you guys are right, then it means 1.0 will be released sooner than I'm predicting.

I can live with that.

The bigger problem I see is 1.1, which will (I assume) take several years after the release of 1.0 due to arguing over the scripting language