Resting outside is nearly always interrupted

[wareya]

When I changed the variable in vanilla MW, I had to rest, save, and reload to get the "real" new RNG. I got such things as encounters with <=3 until I realized I needed to do that.

[Hrnchamd]

I did some testing of Vanilla, here's my results.

I slept 50 times for a varying number of hours. (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12 and 24), counting the number of times I was interupted.
Assuming that the probability of being interupted was purely a function of time sleeping, I think I can regard the data as a Binomial distribution for each time period.
with p = probability of being disturbed, and (1 - p) probability of not being disturbed.
Then, I use http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_p ... e_interval to estimate the 95% probability for the value of p for different hours.
Giving the following table.

Hours Slept Interruptions estimated p error Min(p) Max(p)
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 8 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.26
5 17 0.34 0.13 0.21 0.47
6 18 0.36 0.13 0.23 0.49
12 8 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.26
24 9 0.18 0.11 0.07 0.29

First, thank you for getting real test data from Morrowind, and the nice table.

My theory is that it's

Code: Select all

(x < fSleepRandMod * hoursToWait) //The Current Formula

with the slight alteration

Code: Select all

(x < int(fSleepRandMod * hoursToWait))

That formula gives a couple of data points I have experimentally confirmed in vanilla:

hours: 1 Interruptions: 0/100,000
hours: 2 Interruptions: 0/100,000
hours: 3 Interruptions: 0/100,000
...
hours: 24 Interruptions: 25,034/100,000

Still looking for Hrnchamd's confirmation to see if this is a 100% accurate, but he seems to be busy lately so I'm going to commit this change later today.

This isn't quite true. There is no integer rounding, which leaves an obvious footprint in the code. Instead there is another bug during resting, in one of the rest/advance time sub-functions.

interruptAtHoursRemaining is checked every hour against the remaining number of hours to rest, but of course Morrowind forgets to check it on the last hour of rest. In the case interruptAtHoursRemaining == 0, the check is forgotten, and that means zero encounter rate for <= 3 hours rest with default settings. I will update the wiki soon.

My hypothesis is it's a bug in the Vanilla code.
...
But someone screwed up when they wrote the code.

Ha ha ha ha. That is true for 50% of these game mechanics.

Rolling hoursRested against (probability * hoursRested) is not very clever design either.

[scrawl]

Thanks Hrnchamd, code updated.